Goldman Sachs: VR and AR “Will Be the Next Generation Computing Platform”

Prestigious investment bank predicts an $80 billion market by 2025

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Many following the resurgence of VR starting with Oculus’ 2012 Kickstarter have bet their careers that VR and AR will be a disruptive technology, but sometimes it takes buy-in from one of the world’s largest and most influential investment banks to prove to the rest of the world that you aren’t crazy.

It’s actually a problem many with the VR bug are probably familiar with when talking to people who have never used virtual reality: because it’s nearly impossible to understand without trying it for yourself, people in the VR sphere who tell outsiders that “this is going to change the world” just sound like ever other person who has uttered those words (99.99% of which are dead wrong). Lots of forced smiling and nodding takes place during these conversations.

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See Also: What Our Audience Thinks About Rift, Vive, and PlayStation VR Prices

But now the VR-crazed have a slightly more compelling argument to wield in the face of disbelievers: Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s most influential investment banks, is calling virtual and augmented reality “the next generation computing platform.”

A new video from the company has Heather Bellini, Business Unit Leader in Telecommunications, Media and Technology, saying that the company believes to VR and AR market will reach $80 billion by 2025, roughly the size of the current desktop PC market.

“While today virtual reality is primarily thought of as a place for hardcore gamers to spend their spare time, it’s increasingly impacting sectors that people touch every day,” says Bellini. “For example, in real-state: instead of having to go see 50 homes with an agent over the weekend, you might be able to put on a pair of virtual reality glasses or a head mounted display at your realtors office and be able to do a virtual walk-through of what those properties look like and therefore maybe you could eliminate 30 out of 50 on your list and be much more efficient with your time.”

What Bellini is describing of course is what’s known as a disruptive technology: one that doesn’t just let us do new things, it changes the way we do everything else too. The smartphone is among the most recent disruptive technologies; for those of you reading this on a smartphone right now, just 10 years ago you probably didn’t even own one. Now it’s something that’s integral to your daily life.

Goldman Sachs thinks VR and AR could be just as important.

“We think this technology has the potential to transform how we interact with almost every industry today, and we think it will be equally transformative both from a consumer and an enterprise perspective,” she says. “At the end of the day we think VR and AR will be as transformation as the smartphone market.”

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See Also: This Excerpt from a 1993 Book on VR Will Make You Say “Déjà vu”

Goldman Sachs also anticipates and defends what I identified as one of the three most common arguments against VR (and why they’re wrong): the notion that VR ‘already failed’, and what’s different now compared to the tech from the ’80s and ’90s.

“What’s different about virtual reality today versus, say, 10 years ago when people thought this was going to become mainstream, is that the technology has started to catch up,” says Bellini. “We have processor speeds—things like Moore’s Law have really transformed chip speed—graphics cards have gotten more powerful, so you’re [able] to see the number of frames per second that your eyes need to see so that you don’t feel queasy as you’re starting to use these types of devices.”

For everyone out there who smiled and nodded when I told them VR is going to change the world: I’m tempted to say ‘I told you so’, but I’m much more excited for you to experience the technology and see the light for yourself.

  • user2

    80 in 2025 is very conservative. the smartphone market alone is a 270 billion dollar business today. and that’s only mobile hardware.

    • Raphael Seghier

      yes, everybody is focusing on tethered VR for obvious reasons (it’s more sexy from a tech point of view). But mobile VR is going to emerge faster as a market.

  • Jackye Ferreira

    Visual walkthorught on residential building
    http://wikibeachrealestate.com/360/terrazas/

    • Ryan Simmons

      That’s a great walk through. Best I’ve seen so far. Can you view that in VR or just through the website?

  • hobel

    Although I totally agree that AR and VR will be highly relevant platforms, I just can’t take that video from Goldman Sachs seriously. First of all, any video that portrays AR as translucent windows stuck to your field of view can not be taken seriously. And besides that, there’s nothing more silly and pretentious than predicting what size these markets will be 9 years down the line. Do they think they know what VR/AR hardware will be like 9 years down the line, what they will be used for, and by how many people? All that we can predict is that VR and AR will be widely used technologies at some point, and that within the next few years we will see this technology become increasingly more mainstream. But let’s not be silly and predict numbers for 2025. And let’s turn off that creepy background music, it makes her look like a crazy astrologist.

    • benz145

      It’s important to consider that Goldman Sachs audience largely consists of people who don’t care much about the individual technology, they just deal in markets. So having a perfect portrayal of VR or AR in the video is not a high priority, in fact I would say that the unrealistic portrayal they showed is better at explaining what AR is like to people who have no idea what it is or how it works than a realistic representation would be.

    • user2

      it kinda is there job to predict it :)

      • hobel

        I know that’s what they do, they’re basically doing promotion for the emerging VR/AR market because they want to get involved in that new industry as an investment bank. The fact that they come up with those specific numbers doesn’t mean that those are reasonable predictions, it’s just their way of promoting their own interests. No one should take those numbers seriously.

      • Grumpys view

        doenst matter if they are right or wrong, its a bank.

  • Alan Smithson

    $80B seems low actually

  • http://bseddon.myopenid.com/ bseddon

    VR may have some applications. AR does have some compelling applications however, AR requires a camera so it has a reality it can augment that is in agreement with your visual field. Now Google did this with the Glass project and it didn’t end well. In part it was not successful because few wanted to wear glasses so how is that going to work if we all have to walk around wearing a ski mask? But mainly it failed because the always-on camera represents a huge privacy problem. Of course the vendors may assert their device is not recording. But even if that is true by design and in shipped products, someone will root the device and enable recording and put their version on the internet. If the potential for recording is there (which it will be) the potential will be realized and privacy issues will be a serious impediment to any putative AR device as they were for Google Glass

    • user2

      because today not everybody carries a cam? and self-driving cars wont make it onto the market because of privacy concerns? the IoT wont be realized?

  • Jim L

    When will they have the holodeck ready?

    • owlcool

      When a Star Trek Fan starts a Kickstarter to create the Holodeck to be used in Amusement Parks, or a Star Trek Fan who is a Billionaire starts developing it.