Over the course of the last 50 years, capital markets have significantly codified a generational model approach consumer technology products. New “generations” of products are expected to come at a regular pace and provide increased features and reliability at the same prices. But depending upon the product type, the typical life cycle from one generation to the next can vary greatly. With the first wave of VR headsets now available to consumers, the time will come for the next generation to be announced and eventually launch. But when?

With no mention of next generation headsets from any of the major players at CES 2017, I put the question to HTC’s China Regional President of Vive, Alvin Wang Graylin. As the Vice-Chairman of Industry of VR Alliance and President of the VR Venture Capital Alliance, Graylin has a bird’s-eye view not only on the Vive hardware itself, but also on a wide range of VR hardware that’s in development from both startups and large scale business alike.

I asked Graylin how he thought about the VR headset upgrade cycle and its comparison to the early modern smartphone market, where the cadence of generational product improvements was on a nearly yearly cycle.

“Instead of looking at just the phone market—which is one type of very rapid consumer product—if you look at the other segment, which is the consoles, they’re about five or six year type of cycles,” he said. “What I would imagine is that the VR headsets are probably somewhere in between, probably tending closer toward the phone cycles than it is to the console cycles, but it’s definitely not as quick [as the early smartphone era] with the major updates.”

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Apple AR/VR Product to Debut in 2017, Predicts Sony's Head of Worldwide Studios

That puts the hardware refresh cycle of VR headsets, by Graylin’s estimate, somewhere between one and three years. Granted, the eventual cadence of next-generation products (in any industry) relies greatly on the pace of that industry’s R&D efforts.

And while the headset’s optics, display, and tracking might stay the same throughout a hardware generation, Graylin says there’s improvements to be made to the experience even within a generation, through accessories.

“But what we will do [between cycles] is accessories; the thing that you’re seeing is that we’ve created a good foundational platform for people to build things on. Changing it too quickly will actually make it very difficult for developers, make it difficult for accessory makers and for other types of systems that rely on it.”

vive-deluxe-audio-strap-ces-2017
HTC’s Daniel O’Brien introduces new accessories at CES 2017

At CES, HTC introduced the much anticipated Vive Tracker and Deluxe Audio Strap. Competitor Oculus has released earphones for the Rift and launched Touch, their own set of VR controllers.

The three major headset makers—HTC, Sony, and Oculus—have said almost nothing about their plans for next generation versions of the headsets. Still, Graylin thinks there’s a lot of innovation quickly to come to the young VR industry.

SEE ALSO
HTC Vive Exec Makes Predictions for the Next 2 Years of Virtual Reality

“I think we will have a lot of innovation […] [the speed of innovation] will likely be much faster than what we see for the phone industry,” he said. “I think Ray Kurzweil said, ‘the first 20 years of the 21st century was as much progress overall as the last 100 years of the 20th century.’ I think that’s the kind of speed we’re going to see; everything accelerates. And VR is the latest, greatest, and probably will be the longest lasting wave of technological revolution.”

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Ben is the world's most senior professional analyst solely dedicated to the XR industry, having founded Road to VR in 2011—a year before the Oculus Kickstarter sparked a resurgence that led to the modern XR landscape. He has authored more than 3,000 articles chronicling the evolution of the XR industry over more than a decade. With that unique perspective, Ben has been consistently recognized as one of the most influential voices in XR, giving keynotes and joining panel and podcast discussions at key industry events. He is a self-described "journalist and analyst, not evangelist."
  • user

    “and probably will be the longest lasting wave of technological revolution.”

    probably. ar will take the spotlight but in the long run vr will catch up. we will build a new world and see a transition as the one from rural to urban areas. we will completely redesign our surroundings again but in a more radical way.

    what we need is more fiber-optic cables for the access to cloud computing.

    • Get Schwifty!

      “we will build a new world”…. interesting language. One reality is that as energy costs decline, remote health care, delivery of all goods to almost anywhere and communications, including use of VR/AR become common place there is less need to actually live in close quarters and the current push towards urbanization will actually ease or even reverse and allow people to live out more away from the city. Technocrats love the idea of a city-bound population because it makes implementation of taxation and control policies much easier…. but technology is over time actually making it easier to live away from cities, not less.

      • user

        its interesting that overcoming the urban-rural dichotomy was a goal of communism since the 19th century. and when you think about the potential of 3D printing for the decentralization of production.. that scares a lot of people probably. i assume the development in quantum computing with its potential for simulations will lead to progress in atomically precise manufacturing and according to drexler that could lead to ‘radical abundance’. so, yes, there is a potential to overcome many dependencies.

        • Surykaty

          You would need some sort of genius AI that would solve all of the physics needed for such a “atom-by-atom” 3d printer and then it would have to devise the best engineering approach… a full-blown and practical replicator is not maybe even possible due to limitations of laws of physics

          • user

            what does “maybe” mean? can you refer to theoretical papers that disprove drexler et al? otherwise the comment is kinda useless.

      • ummm…

        Interesting points, but are you putting too much weight upon the desire of people to be close to their work; i.e. the ability to work remotely will lead to more choosing to live in nature etc. I think urbanization is driven not only by business centers – which are in urban areas, but also culture. Cities are more than just centers of brick and motor industry, but also cultural and political centers. Not everyones ideal is to live amongst pastures etc. Do you live in a big city?

        • Get Schwifty!

          I agree that cities result in cultural evolution and this has a bonding effect, but it runs counter to the fact many people move to cities, and decide again to leave even if they can afford to stay… but again, do I really need to live next to you with enough technology to get the same effect? Is hanging out at the local club with potentially 10 million people effectively a draw over say a club in a town with say 50 thousand? That’s kind of my point…. people will still have communities to do what full bore cities do, but I think through technology they can be more disconnected but still get the interplay needed for political and cultural development. Then again, we may all just choose to live in the arcologies presented in Japanese anime lol.

          I live in what most people would refer to as a “big city”, metro Atlanta. Having been to cities such as New York, LA, London, Paris, etc. I don’t really think of it as a big city but it would qualify I think :)

          • ummm…

            i live in nyc. my simple point is i dont think the remote work revolution will induce people that want to live in cities to leave. Furthermore i dont think people are living in cities because they must. people live in cities because of the culture of living in a city. If people are leaving cities its because they can’t afford it or they have kids. I think further options to work from home will have little to no affect on the trend towards urbanization.

            so i think thats a fundamental flaw of your reasoning – at least in regards to this point. But, we could be talking past one another.

            VIVE RULES!

      • Konchu

        I figured we would moved closer to the cities for accessible high speed internet and cheap housing. “Stack them Sons of Bitches” :)

        • Foreign Devil

          Housing is always way more expensive in cities. . you move out of cities to find cheap housing.

          • Konchu

            You missed the reference. Here’s a quarter try again.

    • Kevin Farnham

      5G

      • user

        for the last mile, if necessary, sure. everything else has to be fiber though. still, if youre at home you want the most stable low latency connection possible for cloud computing in a vr environment.

  • Xilence

    The accessories will not be a problem if done correctly. For example, Vive’s system is perfect the way it is. The tracking is spot on, and there’s very little lag. Maybe improve the base stations and release ones with even more precise tracking and better latency but as far as that goes, it won’t be required, just an improvement slightly if you buy a newer base, it’ll be slightly more refined (kinda like how firmware works).

    The real improvements come when you buy newer versions of primary pieces such as the HMD and maybe the hand controls. The actual trackers that they’re giving to third parties may not have to be upgraded for say… 2 upgrade cycles.

    • Doctor Bambi

      Yeah, I think we’re seeing all the pieces of a gen 2 Vive being slowly released over the next two years. It’s starting with TPCast, then the deluxe audio strap, Valve’s “Knuckle” controllers perhaps come out near the end of the year.

      Then CES 2018, HTC unveils Vive 2.0 which has completely redesigned optics and display tech, comes with the new redesigned and cheaper lighthouse base stations which maybe allow for more than just 2 at one time. Then all the tech we’ve seen come out over the past year gets integrated in. It’ll be wireless, come with the Knuckles, and a more comfortable head strap system with integrated headphones.

      • MosBen

        I pretty much came to post this. I expect that for the holiday 2017 season HTC will release a new Vive sku with the upgraded strap, smaller/cheaper base stations, and the new controllers at a somewhat reduced price. Then for holiday 2018 they’ll release version 2.0 with higher resolution screens, etc.

        • TheVillasurfer

          Higher resolution. Can’t wait……I’m not interested in wireless, new Rift controllers (obviously!), increased FOV etc etc. For me, when we get higher resolution in a quality headset with the software range as per Rift/Vive….THAT is what is the next thing to excite me about VR. Imagine seeing a 360 video (for example), that doesn’t look terrible :)

    • NooYawker

      It’s heavy, and it would be nice to get rid of the big ring on top of the controllers.

  • Get Schwifty!

    Ah futurism…. I still recall everyone in 2000 predicting based on Ray’s soothsaying that the “Technological Singularity” of runaway AI was just a few years off. Always look askance when execs start mixing in futurist philosophies with what amounts to basic product development. VR is in reality not high tech in the least, its just an application of a lot of basic technologies that exist, much like the pad and smart phone were.

    My reading is basically that HTC hasn’t quite decided what cadence of releasing a Vive 2.0 design is, but probably holding off for two more years, hence the 1-3 year figure. Counting one year already, plus two more, right on three. This gives them time to make a more meaningful release relative to the prior version and have time to push out the various accessories they develop per version as they work the market. This of course is all dependent upon what any competitor may suddenly release details on, in which case they decide to pull the trigger on a contingent release to stay in the press which HTC is very good at.

    Not knocking HTC, I am glad they saw the problems with their headset strap and are offering for fee a replacement, and were willing to create an extra tracking object “the Tracker” for accessories, which is probably first and foremost to shore up the VR cafe’s which are reputedly struggling currently. I would even venture that the release of 1000 units to devs and the push on internal development with Valve is all part of working to “root” the market, which is all good, but its hardly innovative in the least.

    Just putting something on the market is not a “technological innovation”, it’s just the application of technology, it’s the positioning of the total package that makes it a worthy success like the smartphone. This lesson is what HTC is applying to VR, which is a good one to have in mind, I don’t think Oculus/FB is really interested in this “continuous-device-refinement” approach yet.

    • user

      haha, yea, ray is one of a kind. the whole singularity school reminds me of a cult with their exponential progress talk – as if its a law of nature.

      • RipVoid

        Ray has an amazing track record of being right. No offensive, but but I’ll take his prognostication ability over yours.

        • user

          im with hassabis when he says that its not predictable. he says that they need a dozen breakthroughs and nobody can know when they will happen.

    • Peter Laurent

      Ray specifically said 2045 (or within a few years of it) so there’s a while to go yet.
      And not for “runaway AI”, but for AI that is smarter than the collective intelligence of humanity.

      • evo_9

        2030 roughly is his latest prediction, he basically lays it all out in his 2009 film Transcendent Man.

        • user

          is that an alternative fact?

      • Get Schwifty!

        I think people are in love with a sort of technological romanticism…. the whole idea is founded on the concept that networked computers can be built to effectively equal the self organizing principles we believe (not actually know) the human mind works on. Computers merely push symbols around in predictable manner based on logic we originally give them, even in cases of “self-writing code”. There is little evidence I am aware of that there is any way outside of human’s inputting logic to actually cause a system to independently drive it.

        Do I believe we can erect some very convincing AI that is hard to distinguish from a person? Certainly, but there is just no evidence I know of that it is more than merely an expert system ultimately programmed by humans, with no capacity to do more than “learn” according to rules written creatively by humans. Not really “smart”, just a very good simulacrum in a limited frame of reference. I should still be around in 2030, fifty-fifty in 2045, but I would be none of these predictions turns out true but Ray will die a rich man regardless. My personal belief is the mind (and self-consciousness) are more than just accidents or arrangements of matter, but to strict materialists it “must” be this way so a technological singularity is a given.

        Then again I could be wrong :)

  • xebat

    My bet is that, around CES 2018 will be the time we can expect next generation HMDs from Oculus and HTC to be introduced.

    • David Herrington

      Yes sometime around Q1-Q2, I totally agree. And that will mean a release date of Q3-Q4 2018 for new HMD’s.

      This will give HTC and others the necessary R&D time to mature some tech and improvements (eyetracking, higher density display, wireless capabilities, ergonomic straps, lighter materials, etc), along with also giving some time to accessory makers to make their money (TPCast, etc).

    • evo_9

      Yeah that would be my guess; they need time to develop better display/tracking etc + the longer they wait the more likely they can both increase the specs and drop the price.

      It would be great if they they came out with new HMD’s every year like phones, but for now we’re probably looking at 2 years roughly each iteration. Well until mobile phones eat this niche too.

    • Uncomfortable Movie Goer

      …Well, maybe from HTC. Not so sure about Oculus anymore ;)

  • Buddydudeguy

    Not news.

  • OgreTactics

    HTC is lucky to be a phone company too. Oculus, I wouldn’t bet on them to be there as VR hardware makers in the long run.

    Because all I can tell from Vive president, is that he’s completely unperceptive nor imaginative. Someone who quotes Ray Kurzweil, especially on falselyhoods, is a first bad sign. Stating that “consoles, they’re about five or six year type of cycles” which is exactly why consoles have already been upgraded after 3 years and will probably be every 2 years now and will disappear after the next 9th generation, because they don’t make sense as tech devices anymore, is another sign of obliviousness to market reality.

    I guess 2018 will be the second, erf nope in fact the third, “defining year” for VR beyond which we fall in another 90s situation.

    • Brad Blackmere

      Considering how central VR tech is now to my daily gaming habits, and how much new content I continue to see for it I have trouble imagining it disappearing. I can’t be the only person who wants to continue experiencing the current level of VR.

      It may be a niche market for a while yet, but I am very excited to continue to use, buy and support software on this platform.

      • OgreTactics

        Well as much as we all appreciate this niche, a tech market of that scope won’t pick-up and have infinite time to pick-up if it doesn’t on the mass consumer market in the coming years. This never happened. And my point has been that given the current state of products and the mindset in which they’re conceive, it might be too late for it too pick when the momentum interest windows has waned.

        • MosBen

          I disagree. Plenty of technologies trundle along in niches, slowly getting better and better and with a market that grows a bit over time, until finally they’re ubiquitous. I’m old enough to remember PDAs turning into early smart phones, until finally the tech got to a place in the iPhone that it achieved wide appeal. And tablet computers existed long before the iPad made them a big consumer product. And smartwatches existed as a niche item before they saw a big jump with the Apple Watch, and while it’s still pretty niche, the form factor continues to evolve.

          VR in the 90s died because the hardware was extremely expensive, too bulky to be realistically used at home, sickness inducing, and frankly not really impressive. The reason that VR has caught on in the last few years, even in just a niche, is that the hardware is bulky, but usable, the cost has come way down, the sickness inducement is reduced, and the experiences are much better. We may see some prominent players in the VR space fail or leave the market in the next few years, but VR won’t ever die again like it did in the 90s. We may enter into a prolonged period of time when people are always sure that THIS is the year that VR breaks out and it’s always JUST getting pushed off by a year, but that’s fine. The tech will continue to improve until it finally does break out of the niche.

          • OgreTactics

            I’m sorry but this historical revisionism. You are comparing PDAs with smartphones like iPhone, implying that not only they are the same device category but that iPhone is the continuity and has anything to do with PDAs? This is a big misunderstand and misknowledge about the actual iPhone history: it comes from the iPod, nothing else, and when Apple wanted to compete with phones they too absolutely NO cues from the PDA, not the screen, not the stylus, not the design, not the keyboard, not the interface…they simply iterated on the iPod until they made a new kind of device that integrates the functionalities of all prior portable device from calculator and walman to portable console and cameras…

            The same about tablet. The same with…well not with smartwatch because they actually completely failed in it conception.

            You’re also completely ignoring the 90s VR history. Do you know how how much and how many headset Virtual Boy sold? 800.000 headset at around 360$ (inflation fixed price)…”the hardware is bulky but usable, the cost has come way down, the sickness inducement is reduced, and the experiences are much better”…20 years after and you think that’s enough for it to survive? At barely double the price, it did not even sale more than 200k for the main headsets…

          • MosBen

            I disagree. The iPhone was the descendant of several branches of mobile technology. Yes, it was the successor to the mobile entertainment of the iPod, but it was also when portable personal assistant functions, like those that had been developed in the PDA niche, went mainstream. And it’s also not like the iPhone was the first smartphone either. Smartphones had existed before as niche products while the hardware and software got better and better until they were ready for prime time. VR can live on as a niche product without needing to meet some artificial and short deadline. Sure, maybe HTC or Facebook will abandon VR/AR, but VR won’t go to a standstill. It will continue to develop as a niche product for VR fans until someone puts out a product that is ready for mainstream audiences.

            Yes, the Virtual Boy was a consumer VR-ish headset, but it was expensive and it sucked. I don’t think that it undermines my point at all. While it sucked, it was the 90s’ best shot at consumer VR. Though a valiant effort, it showed that the tech simply wasn’t compelling, even for niche fans to maintain. The success of the Rift Kickstarter alone shows that there’s sizable fan interest in the tech, enough that even if a company like Facebook decided to end its VR program the tech would continue to be used and developed by a niche community.

          • user

            as an aside, youre arguing with someone who thinks xiaomi was the most inventive company of 2016. half of what he writes is made up.

          • OgreTactics

            And it was the most innovative company of the smartphone sector. But you’re probably a racist cunt that can’t bare chinese doing better than you, whoever you are.

          • TheVillasurfer

            You only have to look at the companies involved today, and the plans that these companies have, to realise that this is a tech revolution that is far beyond the one that you’re comparing from the 90s. This is different in so many ways.

            Virtual Boy obviously didn’t have the smart-phone market available to it that we have today. Personally I won’t be altering my VR route to the smartphone route, but placing VR onto an electronic device that the majority of people possess is a game-changer that will massively-increase interest and consumption in this medium.

            As a side-note, I got my Sega Master System 3D glasses out the other day. Complete immersion! Haha, I really did give them another go. Pretty amazing for it’s time, but had to buy an old tv just to try it again (gun game) :)

          • OgreTactics

            VR Headset shouldn’t and were never meant to integrate or be tied to a device. That’s why the fact that it’s not already wireless is mind-boggling. It’s like if the first console or computer weren’t released as machine but where tied to one single TV or screen, or vice-versa. In fact your Sega Master exemple is funny, one another common point with 90s VR for me.

            VR Headset are ONLY meant to be the new visual and interactional interfacing device to replace screen+controller/mouse, NOT consoles or machines, if only for the convenience of a smartphone but even then: soon you’ll be able to sync and stream your VR to any machine.

            So yes, Mobile VR Headset are the only relevant future, especially knowing that everything and more and more is becoming mobile.

          • benz145

            Sony Clie was my jam.

          • TheVillasurfer

            Yes, I completely agree. And let’s all just take whatever we get from VR in the meatime. It’s a great start and anything on top of what we already have now is a bonus imo (for the next 24 months or so).

            I’m passionate about VR because I saw it on tv in the 90s and it instantly got my interest and really caught my imagination. The fact that we now have impressive gen 1 consumer devices is amazing. Let’s be grateful and enjoy the ride…..It’s finally here!

  • Surykaty

    higher res panels or no deal.. my eyes refuse to believe anything with such a visible SDE… my eyes even hate the subtle variance between the pixel brightness which results in a static noise overlay. I’m afraid this obnoxious eye for miniscule detail is what you get after working with graphics since the age of 9.

    • DAVE

      With graphics cards becoming so powerful these days wouldn’t you just be able to purchase a killer GPU in 2/3 years and super sample these current HMDs upto 2k/4k

      • Surykaty

        ??? were you drinking before you wrote that? read on what is SDE – screen door effect and then go and read what you wrote

        • DAVE

          no i wasn’t drinking but having a conversation with you would probably require a few

          • Surykaty

            actually i just returned from a night of drinking and i still don’t know how can someone talk about combating SDE by supersampling current HMDs to 2k/4k.. i have no clue how can software approach solve a physical hardware problem called SDE

          • DAVE

            Because im not knowledgeable enough on the subject, i just assumed the SDE was a by product of the resolution.

        • TheVillasurfer

          He was just asking a question man. No need to attack him.

  • evo_9

    Wow – he is really putting himself out on the line with such a bold prediction. I mean, really, new hardware that soon??? No way man, I call ‘nah-huh’, next he’ll be saying we’ll be getting brand new phones from Apple and Samsung every few years or less! Madness! That cannot possible ever happen. I mean that would require some sort of ‘law’ that predicted hardware processing powers doubling every 18 months, I mean come on, what fantasy world does this guy live on? If such a fantastic thing happened we’d be calling it something clever like ‘Moore’s Law’ and it might actually be useful in predicting stuff like this. But clearly this guys is really being super bold and predicting some radical ass shit.

    • user

      “if you look at the other segment, which is the consoles, they’re about five or six year type of cycles,”

      does that mean moores law doesnt apply to the tech in consoles?

      i know thinking is hard with your high testosterone levels.

      • evo_9

        mostly tongue in cheek, I guess satire isn’t your strong suite. Consoles however are now refreshing every 2.5 years; PS4 Pro, Xbox-One S are already out and Xbox Scorpio is due out later this year.

        But really the driver of this is only indirectly Moore’s Law; the real driver is mobile which continues to encroach on the console world. It’s hard to imagine how console can continue to exist when even refreshing every 2.5 years, which is hard sell to the console gaming crowd, versus phones that are gaining significant power each year. Phones will eclipse consoles in the next 5 years (and not jus this generation which is probably the last because the writing will be on the walls for Sony/MS etc that by time they drop PS5/Xbox-Whatever the next generation phones will be as fast or faster within a year of their release – and everyone will have one).

        • Get Schwifty!

          I personally cannot ever see mobile displacing consoles or general purpose PC’s IF there is continued development of components simply because the form factor allows for things you just can’t do in a phone. Just as the PC with a good GPU + GPU trounces a console any day of the week, likewise both a PC’s and consoles trounce phones and always will because the larger form factors allow for larger more capable silicon. Phone gaming is impressive, but is a shadow of what is always possible on the larger form factor systems.

          I don’t believe you can assume that the same levels of processing are “frozen” and therefore a steady miniaturization means all computing done will be what can be stuck in a phone. That being said, I do believe for “average computing” the phone probably will displace the PC for many folks, but there will be levels of computing requiring consoles or PC’s just as we still have supercomputers despite the fact your phone does more than the original supercomputers… the evolution in processing levels doesn’t stop.

          • user

            if the future of gaming is the cloud, then desktop pcs/consoles become obsolete for vr. larger form factor: data center ;)

          • David Keller

            Until internet latencies can be reduced to almost zero, cloud based gaming isn’t really a viable option. It’s way too laggy and it gets far worse the higher the resolution and frame rate. Which is why streaming games are limited to 30 fps typically and I’m not sure about the res 720 or 1080 maybe.

      • care package

        well with higher estrogen our thinking from an emotional level would be easier anyway.

    • Get Schwifty!

      IIRC Luckey went on record saying that he expected the cadence to be “longer than a smartphone and shorter than consoles” which to me again points to about three year cycles that maybe they all recognized made the most sense in terms of production, stability in the market, and enough technology-for-cost to justify production of a new headset design.

      Moore’s law is also not holding as true as it did before for silicon based CPU’s because the physical limits of building processors is on the horizon. It’s actually taking significant time to get processing methods to cost down to produce increasingly so at least for silicon, it’s turning out to not be true anymore.

      A move to optical based processing will jump start the Moore’s law effect I suspect, but that is not ready for mass consumption yet.

  • AndyP

    “Likely”, “1 to 3 years” – hmm, so basically tells us nothing!

    • user

      well, now we know that it definitely wont be 4-5 years :)

  • Ben

    This article featured on NCIX :)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so0vzyrrv8o

  • Icebeat

    This guy smokes ready good shit!!!

  • Carl Lazarraga

    At this point i’m not going to buy a VR Set until the next generation models roll out. Something with the comfort of the PSVR, the Motion tracking of the Vive and the quality/resolution of the Rift and Vive.

    At 500+ to get into VR, I think it’s a smart idea to wait for a more refined VR product and experience before taking the plunge as opposed to dropping it all on first generation hardware.

  • Mmmh don’t know if really believe him. Still thinks that Vive 2 will be announced in Q3 this year. VR is moving too quickly, Microsoft is entering the market and so on…

  • Max

    1-3 years – wow! Stating the obvious. I predcit end of 2017 to see a new set of hardware. Improvements will be fast and incremental and from so many different vendors for the initial phase of VR and than will evolve into console-cycles later.

  • Dusty Thompson

    The first gen headsets are not good enough. I expect quite a few companies have version two ready but are waiting for a baseline to be set while they continue RD. I can imagine a lot of people are like me and just waiting for gen2. Generation one was not really ready for prime time but has set the stage well when announcements for gen2 are finally made. I’d expect something Gen2 around Xmas this year, perhaps next summer latest. Once one of the main players announce they will all make announcements soon after. I can’t wait for high res wireless oculus.

  • Vinak

    I would be comfortable with a 3 year cycle.

  • BigKate

    Longer than a phone but less than a console – now what gets updated every 2 years hmm well, the DK1 was needed a powerful Kepler series graphics card, the DK2 when it was first launched was running unreleased Nvidia cards that were subsequently launched as Maxwell, meanwhile the CV1 was released to coincide with the launch of pascal – are we seeing a pattern here? Of HMD’s needing the most powerful graphics cards released to drive them???
    So what is happening this year – well in the next few months Vega will be released and aimed very much for the middle market and is rumored to be akin to GTX1080ti & Titan Xp meanwhile coming out later in the year is the new architecture from Nvida i.e. Volta

    So when are the next consumer edition HMD’s coming in at the high end? Probably Q4 2017 i.e this Christmas 1.5 years after first release. It might also be pushed by LG as opposed to HTC. The situation with Oculus seems different a they seem to be aiming for the mass market and going into competition with Lenovo, Dell and various other manufactures and of course Sony and Microsoft with their new console releases and their respective unreleased HMD’s

    I am betting on either 3K @ 120Hz or 4K @ 90Hz with foviated rendering
    but what do I know??

  • David Keller

    What I want is a much higher resolution. The rest is fine as far as I’m concerned. 4K @ 120hz, now that would make for some epic VR